Many of today’s challenges—such as climate change, rapid technological development, and external shocks like pandemics—are full of uncertainty and sudden shifts. Foresight is an umbrella term for methods and tools that make plans and decisions more robust in the face of such uncertainty.
Instead of assuming that the future follows a straight line from the present, foresight is about exploring and imagining different versions of what the future might bring. The aim is not to predict correctly, but to clarify what is uncertain and what choices exist. The goal is for political decisions to become more robust across possible developments.
Strategic foresight goes one step further: it is about how the insights from foresight work are formally organised and linked to planning and decision-making. In this project, the Norwegian Board of Technology will assess how strategic foresight can strengthen policymaking in Norway.
Why the Norwegian Board of Technology is doing this project
Being prepared for the future is harder than before
The future appears more unpredictable and uncertain than it has in many years, and technology plays an important role both as a cause and a possible solution:
External shocks are the new normal.
The COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, the energy crisis, and the U.S. trade war show how increasingly frequent and complex crises affect the world. An open, export-based economy like Norway’s is especially vulnerable to crises and shocks and should be prepared for them.
Adaptation is a project for the future.
The planet is approaching several climate tipping points. In addition, Norwegian society must adapt to secure welfare and the workforce in the future. Systematic exploration of what sustainable societies of the future might look like is a prerequisite for identifying and implementing political measures that can steer society in a desired direction today.
Technological development has unforeseen consequences.
Rapid advances in technologies such as synthetic biology and human-level artificial intelligence may transform working life, healthcare, and the economy. Systematic exploration of the future can become a useful tool for shaping working life and welfare in new and sustainable ways, and for succeeding in seizing the opportunities that technology brings.
Using foresight methods can make Norway better prepared
Statistical projections and predictions are the most common methods of analysing the future. These models can help us understand what will happen if we extend today’s trends into the future, but they are less suited to exploring alternative and more unforeseen futures. For example, statistical models were only to a limited extent able to anticipate external shocks such as the financial crisis in 2008, or the significance of the rise of the internet for the economy, public services, or the organisation of working life.
Foresight is about complementing statistical projections and predictions with alternative qualitative and more exploratory methods of future analysis, such as scenarios, horizon scanning, and various forms of citizen and stakeholder involvement.
In countries like Finland, New Zealand, Wales, Canada, and Singapore, foresight is more integrated into political processes and policymaking than in Norway. This makes these countries differently equipped to handle shocks, new technologies, and transitions.
The aim of the project:
The aim of the project of Norwegian Board of Technology is to map out available foresight methods, assess how they can be integrated into policymaking in Norway, and provide recommendations on how work with strategic foresight can be organised.
