One of the Norwegian Board of Technology’s responsibilities is to remain up to date with developments in technological foresight internationally. We ourselves use foresight methods such as scenario development and horizon scanning in our work, and in previous reports have examined how the future is analysed in key documents such as the Long-Term Perspectives on the Norwegian Economy 2024 (and earlier versions) and the so-called 21-strategies.
In our project on strategic foresight, we have a broader aim: to contribute to more robust and future-oriented policy development in Norway. This first report describes why foresight has become necessary, what methods exist, and how those methods can help make policy more forward-looking.
Download the report in Norwegian below:
Metoder for strategisk fremsyn – En verktøykasse for robust politikkutvikling
The next report will address how strategic foresight can be integrated into policy development and public administration in Norway in a systematic way, and will be produced in collaboration with an expert group.
What is Strategic Foresight?
Strategic foresight is a structured and systematic approach to exploring possible futures and preparing for change. It is not about predicting the future, but about mapping how the economy, technology and politics might develop in several different directions. Foresight has become a more necessary governance competence than before, because several megatrends are pointing towards increased complexity and uncertainty:
Shocks spread faster and further than before.
The pandemic, war, the energy crisis and inflation have shown how events in one country or sector can rapidly propagate through interconnected global systems and disrupt existing plans. Even minor events can create significant knock-on effects when economic, energy, and digital and financial infrastructure are so tightly coupled. They can force rapid changes of course that may challenge the legitimacy of governments.
Technological development has unforeseen consequences.
Powerful technologies such as artificial intelligence are being developed at pace and with limited transparency. The most resource-rich companies in history are driving development, whilst the United States, China and the EU compete for computing power, microchips and AI models. The combination of speed, secrecy and rivalry makes these developments difficult to anticipate.
The rules of the world order are being challenged.
Agreements, institutions and norms that previously provided stable frameworks are losing support. War and geopolitical power shifts are making economic and security planning more demanding. As international frameworks become less reliable, small countries such as Norway must increasingly plan for shifting and more unpredictable circumstances.
The global transition is an unpredictable experiment.
All countries must simultaneously transform towards a circular and zero-emission economy. This will happen through different means and under different conditions, at different speeds, and with unforeseeable consequences for nature, the economy and politics. At the same time, climate change itself is making the future more unpredictable, with increasing risks of resource conflicts, migration and extreme weather.
Four Methods for Foresight
The report describes four categories of complementary foresight methods used internationally and in Norway. Each analyses the future in different ways and through different means. Together, the methods can contribute to more robust decision-making by assessing room for manoeuvre and designing policies and strategies capable of handling a changing reality.
- Projections and predictions show what may happen if current trends continue. The method draws on statistics, specific assumptions and known patterns of development, thereby providing a quantitative reference point for policy and planning. Projections such as the Long-Term Perspective Report are used to assess how alternative measures might help change course.
- Horizon scanning helps decision-makers to pick up on what is beginning to happen before it appears in official statistics or public debate. The method identifies early signals, trends, megatrends and drivers of change in technology, culture or politics, and can help give warning of shifts before they have major consequences for society.
- Scenarios are structured and plausible narratives that make it possible to explore multiple possible versions of the future. They typically draw on horizon scanning and show how different driving forces and events might pull society in different directions. Scenarios can also be used to test policies and strategies against desirable and undesirable futures.
- Participation brings in the experiences and knowledge of those affected by decisions, making policy development more open and democratically grounded. Methods such as citizens’ workshops and public assemblies can strengthen trust in demanding but necessary choices, and provide insights that may help prevent conflicts.
Strategic foresight is also developing rapidly as a discipline. New digital tools and artificial intelligence are making the methods more sophisticated whilst simultaneously more accessible. Work that was previously manual, time-consuming and quickly became outdated can increasingly be updated on an ongoing basis, offer new insights, and be carried out and used by a wider audience beyond experts alone.
